A weekly outreach to our friends and colleagues in Canada
SPECIAL EDITION: INSIDE THE 112TH CONGRESS
Keeping Count for Canada
The ushering in of 2011 brings with it a brand new Congress and many new faces in Washington, D.C., and around the state houses across the US.
Congress convened Wednesday with the swearing-in of new officers including the Speaker of the House, John Boehner. If elected officials are successful in implementing the campaign pledges they made leading up to last November's election, 2011 promises to be dramatically different than what we saw in 2010 and 2009. Here is our look at the US leaders and legislation we think will most impact Canada and our bilateral relationship this legislative session.
What Was and What Will Be
We are two years out from the next presidential election but make no mistake, the race has begun in earnest. In fact, South Carolina is slated to host the "first-in-the South" GOP presidential debate this spring in David Wilkins' hometown of Greenville. Wilkins will serve as co-chair of the debate which will be held at Greenville's Peace Center for the Performing Arts on May 5 and televised live by Fox News.
With Republican presidential hopefuls already making their case against the Obama Administration, Washington eyes are fixed on the president to see if he adopts the "Clinton strategy" and jogs back to the center after two years of successfully pushing a liberal agenda that led to, in his own words, the "shellacking" his party received in the last election.
But, Obama proved he was only down – certainly not out – during last month's lame duck session of Congress. Normally, the lame duck lives up to its name and Congress achieves little, but Obama seemingly bounced back from the midterms and worked with Republicans in extending the Bush-era tax cuts for all Americans, and won repeal of the controversial "Don't Ask Don't Tell" policy regarding homosexuals in the military.
But, there was good news for the newly-empowered Republicans in the lame duck as well. Still a minority, Republicans did hold fast with the help of Democrat support and beat back Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's attempt to pass another massive spending bill in the waning days of the 111th Congress which, regardless of not passing Reid's bill, still shattered spending records over the past two years. In fact, the 111th Congress added more debt during its tenure than the first 100 Congresses combined — $3.22 trillion. This equals $10,429.64 in new debt for every American – some 308,745,538 of us according the most recent Census.
And now with Speaker Boehner promising the GOP will institute a new "cut as you go" rule in the House, slash spending levels back to 2008 levels, and either repeal or defund large portions of Obama's healthcare bill, it's not a stretch to predict that members of both parties, as well as the administration, will be hard pressed to answer post-midterm calls for "bipartisanship".
This Week in Washington
- New Numbers – As former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi passed the gavel to Ohio's John Boehner this week, she takes on her new role as House Minority Leader. Officially, the 111th Congress ended Monday at noon and with it the Democrats overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate. In the House, Pelosi now leads a minority of 193 Democrats. 242 Republicans make up the House majority. Over in the Senate, Nevada's Harry Reid retains his title as Senate Majority Leader with Democrats controlling 53 seats (2 Independents caucus with the Democrats) compared with the GOP's 47 seats.
- Calling on the Constitution – Congress returned to Washington this week with many new faces committed to long-standing principles. To emphasize that fact, today on the floor of the US House of Representatives, a full reading is slated to be given of the US Constitution – our country's founding document. Supporters say the goal is to reinforce the values of a limited government and to bring core constitutional principles back into everyday governing.
- Republican Rules – Speaker Boehner and his GOP majority say they're intent on making it easier to cut government spending and more difficult to create entitlement programs. They aim to do this through various new House rules including the aforementioned "cut-as-you-go" which requires that all bills considered by the House which increase spending must elsewhere cut other spending by at least the same amount, and a requirement that sponsors of new legislation cite the specific constitutional authority for the actions they are proposing. In the Senate, Democrats are pushing a measure that would revamp the filibuster – making it more difficult for one Senator to speak for hours on end in the hopes of blocking legislation. Most Republicans are expected to balk at this reform attempt.
Issues of Interest
- Halting Healthcare? House Republicans have set next Wednesday, January 12, to vote on repealing the president's signature healthcare bill. All 242 Republicans in the House are expected to support the measure but the odds are against repeal in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Republicans say if they can't win an all-out repeal (which the president would veto anyway) they will work to dismantle and defund the bill piece by piece. Meanwhile, there are several legal challenges to the constitutionality of the health-care law. Those issues will likely be resolved by the Supreme Court.
- Eyes on Energy – Much can happen on this file the next year with the Senate likely setting the stage for any legislation that may eventually pass. There appears to be bipartisan agreement that cap-and-trade schemes are off the table and with them mandatory carbon controls.
But as President Obama said last year regarding climate change legislation, "There's more than one way to skin a cat." And as of January 2, Obama's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has begun doing what Congress has so far refused to do – regulate greenhouse gases.
The EPA is using a 2007 Supreme Court ruling to regulate greenhouse gases. So earlier this week, it enacted its first phase of regulations that set new standards for light-duty vehicles. Later this year, the EPA will enact rules on power plants and refineries.
These mandates for all intents and purposes launch a cap-and-trade program, forcing companies to get permits to emit greenhouse gases.
This is unlikely to sit well with the new Congress. A number of members are vowing to thwart the EPA in its tracks and subject it to heavy Congressional oversight. Some states, like Texas for example, are refusing to implement the new EPA regs and instead, are taking the agency to court. Stay tuned…
Meanwhile, lawmakers in both parties support measures to establish a new federal renewable power mandate or one that encompasses not just wind and solar but nuclear and clean coal. Last month it was reported Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) was back in talks with his friend Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) trying to revive their energy partnership which fell apart last year. According to those reports, Graham said he hopes to be a "major player" on energy again especially as gas in the US inches up to $4 a gallon. Having Graham emerge this session as a major player on the energy file should be viewed as a big plus for Canada. Graham visited Alberta's oil sands last fall and deemed it a "national treasure for Canada and the United States," pledging he's "full-speed ahead" on expanding the amount of oil sands crude flowing across the border. He and Georgia Republican Saxby Chambliss quickly followed up their visit to the oil sands by introducing a bill that would in effect protect the oil sands from adverse environmental standards in the US not placed on other oil-based products.
- Time for Trade? In past economically-stable times, the more Republicans in Congress, the better for Canada. Generally, Republicans tend to favor a free trade agenda which obviously bodes well for Canada – our number one trading partner. But with the US economy still struggling and unemployment hovering close to 10%, it makes it difficult to aggressively advance a free trade agenda in Congress, despite the number of new free trade proponents in the House and Senate. The good news is a Republican majority in the House of Representatives will likely prevent "Buy America" provisions and other union-driven legislative priorities and protectionist measures from advancing to the president.
Seven Standouts
There are plenty of members of Congress worthy of watching this year. But we narrowed our list down to seven lawmakers who could prove instrumental in issues like trade and energy which are so vital to the health of our economies and our overall bilateral relationship.
Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) – When it comes to energy issues, this Democrat is most often a reliable GOP vote. Landrieu is a fierce defender of Louisiana's oil and gas industry and last year, memorably, held-up confirmation of a key Obama appointee to protest the Administration's moratorium on oil drilling in the wake of the BP oil spill.
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) – She lost her GOP primary to a more conservative candidate but then urged her fellow Alaskans to make her their write-in candidate and they complied. Murkowski has led Republicans on energy and natural resources issues and with her clearly independent streak is expected to be a major player on these files in the 112th Congress.
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) – He is a brand new Senator who gained national prominence during November's midterm elections. Widely seen as one of the key leaders of the Tea Party movement, Paul is known as being both fearless and aggressive. According to published reports, Paul has said he will try and attach spending cuts to every piece of major legislation that comes before the Senate.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) – All eyes remain on Reid who fought a tough re-election campaign in Nevada and returned personally victorious but to a greatly diminished role as leader, with Republicans picking up seats as well as strong momentum heading into the 2012 elections. Reid has 23 Democratic-controlled seats up in that next election and will likely face some opposition from his own caucus as Republicans look to maximize opportunities to cut spending and force hard votes.
Representative Douglas Lamborn (R-CO) – A vocal critic of the Administration's deep-water drilling ban, Lamborn is now chair of the House Energy and Mineral Resources subcommittee which oversees energy development on federal lands. Lamborn had much to say in the wake of the BP oil spill and the federal government's response to it calling Obama's deep-water drilling ban a "disastrous policy". Lamborn is a critical Canadian ally as evidenced last month when he organized a letter to Secretary Clinton in support of the Keystone XL pipeline which was signed by 38 of his colleagues.
Representative Dave Camp (R-MI) – The Washington Post dubs this Michigan Republican the "most powerful member of Congress you never heard of." Chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, Camp keeps a low profile but has high influence on issues like trade and taxes that are important to Canada.
Representative David McKinley (W.VA) – He's a freshman lawmaker, a seventh-generation West Virginian, and he has a seat on the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee. McKinley says his goal is to protect the coal industry and to end what he dubbed the “war on coal that has been under way now for several years from the EPA.” He vows to make sure the EPA receives heavy oversight and wants greenhouse gas rules to be revised and based on "fact rather than political jargon.”
State Stats
One of the more underreported stories when the dust settled following November's midterms was the vastly new complexion of state houses across the US.
- Majority status in 19 states changed – all of them going Republican
- Republicans gained 700 seats across the US, giving the GOP the most seats it has held since 1928
- Republicans took both chambers in Alabama and North Carolina and gained a majority of all legislative seats in the south for the first time since the 1800s
- The GOP now controls 18 of 28 chambers in the once solidly Democratic south.
- The GOP gained surprise victories in both Maine and Minnesota now controlling those states' lower chambers
Still Influencing
As he was last year, once again the Business Magazine of Greenville, South Carolina has named our own David Wilkins one of its 50 Most Influential people.
Wilkins' deep connections to Canada and his work on important bilateral issues, as well as his leading SC Governor-elect Nikki Haley's transition team and helping the new governor find the best people to fill key leadership posts, were noted as formidable reasons why to recognize the former US Ambassador to Canada and longtime speaker of the South Carolina House of Representatives.
The articles published in this newsletter are intended only to provide general information on the subjects covered. The contents should not be construed as legal advice or a legal opinion. Readers should consult with legal counsel to obtain specific legal advice based on particular situations.